Naples Bonita Springs Estero Florida

These data are from the CENSUS BUREAU, AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

... recently reported in The News-Press

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The headline for the November 13, 2009 press release reads:

FALL SALES SURGE

Report Shows Inventory Declines 14 Percent

The properties under $300,000 have led the way in sales for the past few months. However, the market recovery is working its way up to the higher priced properties it was reported. The press release went on to state that pending sales in the $300,000 to $500,000 price segment have increase 150 percent from just 48 contract written in October of 2008 to 120 contract written in October of 2009.

The availble inventory has declined 14 percent to 9,347. This is the first time the inventory has dropped below 10,000 properties since the boom-bubble cycle.

Other highlights are summarized in the chart below.

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To fully understand reported market statistics one must understand a few statistical terms, how they are computed, and why they don't necessarily tell the whole story.

The three most common statistics used are: mean (or average), median, and mode. The most commonly misunderstood is the median while the mode is seldom reported. It's easiest to understand these terms using some numbers as an example. Assume during one month a home sold at each of these prices:

100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 600,000

Mean (or average) = 283,333; median = 250,000; mode = 100,000; total sales = 6

There are six numbers in the series; therefore the median is midway between the two centered numbers - (200,000 + 300,000) divided by 2 = 250,000. What's important is that 50% of the numbers are below the median and 50% are above the median. This is the definition of the median.

The mode is the number in the series that occurs most often. In this case there are two home sales at 100,000.

When you read a headline such as "Home prices in the month increased 10%", look closely to see exactly what increased - the mean or the median. In either case, the statistic is most representative of the population or group of homes sold rather than actual increasing (or decreasing) prices. Look at the series of numbers again with two changes underlined.

100,000 100,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 600,000 700,000

Mean (or average) = 312,500; median = 250,000; mode = 100,000; total sales = 8

What happened to the price of homes just looking at these statistics? What's most important that one can infer?

Based on the data and computed statistics for the second group of homes we cannot conclude anything about a change in prices or home values although the mean did increase by about 10%. Actual "price increases" can only be done by comparing the sale of the same or like homes from one period to another.

For this example what is most important, in my view, is that the sales volume increased by 33%. People are buying, that ultimately will result in decreasing inventory followed by price increases.  The average price increased only because of two additional sales one was a very high-priced home, comparatively, and one was a low-priced home each at the extremes.

The distribution of homes that sold, in this example, is skewed to the lower priced homes. From this you might infer that it may be the increased availability of lower priced homes that is driving the sales volume upward. Perhaps price reductions are making more homes available in the lower priced segment.  Does this means that prices are going down? It very well could mean that.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Oct. 23, 2009 - Florida's existing home sales rose in September, which marks more than a year (13 months) that sales activity has increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. September's statewide sales also increased over sales activity in August in both the existing home and existing condominium markets.

Existing home sales rose 34 percent last month with a total of 14,419 homes sold statewide compared to 10,778 homes sold in September 2008, according to Florida Realtors. Statewide existing home sales last month increased 4.1 percent over statewide sales activity in August.

Florida Realtors also reported a 77 percent increase in statewide sales of existing condos in September compared to the previous year's sales figure; statewide existing condo sales last month rose 8.9 percent over the total units sold in August.

All of Florida's metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing home sales in September; all but one MSA also showed a gain in condo sales. A majority of the state's MSAs have reported increased sales for 15 consecutive months.

Florida's median sales price for existing homes last month was $142,000; a year ago, it was $174,900 for a 19 percent decrease. Housing industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) note that sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in August 2009 was $177,500, down 12.1 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In Massachusetts, the statewide median resales price was $315,000 in August; in California, it was $292,960; in Maryland, it was $265,862; and in New York, it was $205,000.

NAR's latest industry outlook notes positive signs in the housing sector, but adds that extension of the federal first-time homebuyer tax credit would help sustain a fragile recovery. "Now that the market is showing some momentum, we have an opportunity to achieve a more rapid and broader stabilization in home prices," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The outlook for home sales and prices depends on whether the tax credit is extended, he said, describing it as "the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit."

In Florida's year-to-year comparison for condos, 5,088 units sold statewide last month compared to 2,870 units in September 2008 for a 77 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $102,500; in September 2008 it was $153,500 for a 33 percent decrease. The national median existing condo price was $179,300 in August 2009, according to NAR.

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.06 percent last month, a significant drop from the average rate of 6.04 percent in September 2008, according to Freddie Mac. FAR's sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state's smaller markets, the Pensacola MSA reported a total of 275 homes sold in September compared to 267 homes a year earlier for a 3 percent increase. The market's existing home median sales price last month was $135,000; a year ago it was $146,900 for an 8 percent decrease. A total of 48 condos sold in the MSA in September, up 41 percent over the 34 units sold in September 2008. The existing condo median price last month was $190,000; a year earlier, it was $180,000 for a 6 percent gain.

© 2009 Florida Realtors®

Reproduced with permission

Most homeowners consider and install a home security system (SS) - aka "alarm system" - but not so many ever think about a home automation system (HA) . What's the difference? Home security systems deal with perimeter security and detect intrusion to the premises and some also integrate smoke/fire detection while home automation systems allow the homeowner to define "actions" for various devices and systems in the home based on various "events" like time of day, day time, night time, home occupied, home unoccupied, and just about anything that you can think of.

Generally a SS and an HA system are two separate systems. However, these systems now are so tightly related that you can buy one system that does both functions for a very small addition in cost. The HA system can take advantage of the many SS sensors throughout the home thereby eliminating the need to add additional sensors and wires for the same purpose. The HA system is programmable and flexible. Note that while the system itself is relatively inexpensive, adding home automation switches and sensors can add up. Most people start off with a few features and functions and add to the system over time.

What can you do with a home automation system? The answer is almost anything that you can imagine. There are features you can enable that are useful and helpful and there are those that are just because you can.

Augment the security system...how about flashing all the exterior and/or interior lights before an intruder ever makes it close enough to attempt a break-in? Would you like a chime to sound when someone drives into your driveway, maybe turn on some additional lights?

Protect your home from a disaster...have you ever had a pipe break or water tank leak and go undetected for hours, days? This is quite an expensive ordeal. I don't wish this on anyone. The HA system can automatically turn off the main water supply every time you leave the house. Or, a water sensor can detect a leak and shut-down the main water system and/or dial the phone.

Have you ever gone to bed and left the garage door open? No more. Have you ever driven off to work for the day, thought you closed the garage only to have it reverse and remain open? No more. Did you forget to put the trash out...?

You can also remotely monitor your home through video on a secure website or your phone, control the system including the HVAC from a telephone, smart-phone, laptop, or any web accessible computer. Don't forget complete control over lighting.

Like I said, how's your imagination?

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so reads the headline from the October 16, 2009 Naples Area Board of Realtors press release summarizing September 2009 real estate market.

SUMMER SALES UP 96 PERCENT
Report Shows Inventory Declines 14 Percent

It's the sub-headline that really gets my attention more, though. Of course, increase in sales is one factor that leads to a reduction in inventory but only when it's not outpaced by the new inventory coming into the market. The economy and mortgage crisis has driven a flood of inventory into the market over the last 12 - 18 months. This trend seems to be stabilizing and it's not outpacing sales.

Will the sales activity continue? The ley leading indicator is pending sales - properties for which contracts are written but have not yet closed pending the resolution of various contingencies. At the end of September, the press release state 2,570 homes pending sale compared to 1,314 for the same quater period in 2008.

Other highlights from the press release are:

1. Overall pending sales under $300,000 saw a 126 percent increase in September 2009 compared year-over-year.
2. Overall pending sales for all price ranges and categories increased 107 percent for September 2009 over 2008
3. Single-family home sales increased 87 percent for the period year-over-year while the pending home sales increase 82 percent.
4. The median closed priced decrease to $176,000 from $250,000 in the same period last year. THe median is the value where 50% of the sales above the value and 50% are below.

Also reported...condo sales are climbing steadily and there is an increase of pending sales for home in the $500,000 to $1 million category...the high-end of the market is beginning to return.

Review detailed market reports.

One of the primary uses for real estate websites is to provide a way for you search out a property that meets your needs. Southwest Florida is very much a second home, seasonal home market. Almost all my clients begin with my website. EXPLORE!

One of the special features of my website are predefined searches to make it even easier for you. Many people already know what area(s) they are interested in. Easy...look at the picture above and you will see most all the communities already listed and one click away. In almost all case, each community broken down even further by the neighborhood subdivision or by condominium name. In the "Search" menu item there is a new list for all developments in the area listed alphabetically. Links are added each day...the list is long!

My website covers Naples Florida Real Estate, Bonita Springs and Estero...with the occasional foray into Fort Myers covering Paseo, The Plantaion, Miromar Lakes, and other very south Fort Myers communities.

Lastly, for complete control in searching, use the Advanced Seach feature from the search menu or from  the BIG BLUE Search for Homes button.

Automatice updates...perhaps the most important aspect of searching. The real estate inventory changes everyday. It's difficult to conduct your preferred searches all the time and perhaps miss the new listings of the day. Let my website do it for you. When you specifiy a search, just click "Save Search" and with the HouseTrack check box (deafult) you will all set. Each day, any updates that match your search criteria will be sent directly to your inbox.

EXPLORE!

Banks Making Short Sales Tougher

Banks are backing away from short sales, forcing sellers to pay extra at closing or demanding a promissory note for the amount due. One-third of borrowers owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, according First American CoreLogic.

When their situations were really tough, most banks preferred short sales because they were their best opportunity to get the most money back. But with an improving economy, and because the losses on many of these properties have already been written off the books, banks are increasingly reluctant to negotiate a short sale.

Today, banks demand 9.5 weeks to respond to a short-sale request, compared to 4.5 weeks a year ago, according to research firm Campbell Communications. Their reluctance is frequently stymieing sales and frustrating real estate practitioners.

"It drives me up a wall," says Robert G. Hertzog of Summit Home Consultants in Phoenix. "[The bank is] holding my client hostage."

Source: BusinessWeek, Christopher Palmeri (10/09/2009)

Copyright National Association of REALTORS®. Reprinted with permission

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OK, I know I live in Florida - southwest Florida - and it's supposed to be hot. But, it's the middle of October!

This past week Fort Myers broke a record reaching 95 degrees and Naples tied a previous record of 93 degrees. If nothing else, there's no need to run the swimming pool heater. Today we went for a swim around noon and the pool was bath tub temp - 86-87 degrees.

Now, I just read a Tweet that said the high temp for the Phillies game tomorrow is 37F! Really?

Several years back before we moved from New England, one of the last outdoor pictures I have is in February with me standing on a step ladder beating the ice damns off the roof! The only thing worse is being on a 20 ft. extension ladder doing the same thing or, standing on the roof shoveling off the snow.

Memories...

Black Tuesday is how members of Palmira Golf & Country Club (PGCC) refer to Tuesday, September 30, 2008, the day The Ronto Group (developer of PGCC) closed the doors of the club permanently due to financial conditions.

One year later, in a jovial manner with laughs, smiles and speeches, the members relived the day including crime scene tape stretched across the front doors. This is a bad situation turned good. A few months previous to Black Tuesday I sold a property in PGCC. I relayed the event to the seasonal resident and said not to worry, in time it will be fine. I just knew it would. In this case the members in this premium Bonita Springs community stepped up and purchased the club with 27 holes of golf and now have 320+ members which is nearly the peak membership of the past. The end result is much lower initiation fees and dues and PGCC is now one of the places to be in the area.

PGCC is not alone. Similar situations have taken their toll in other area golf courses. In the end, I believe that these too will be worked out. In as much as the housing market is in its early stages of recovery, it will drive the rejuvenation of golf clubs in these communities.

What could this mean to a home buyer? Good deals, of course. Just like a financially distressed property brings a lower price compared to market value, a distressed golf community can bring down prices or slow down sales leading to better deals.

View homes for sale in Palmira Golf and Country Club