Naples Bonita Springs Estero Florida

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We've hit the bottom (in FL) and the housing market is turning around...

According to Hank Fishkind, noted Orlando based economist. His comments seem to be supported by the data I've reviewed here that housing sales have been increasing steadily over the past twelve months in Collier and parts of Lee county that I reviewed.

During his radio talk show Fishkind stated that the Miami condo market is clearly over built and price drops will continue. There is no reason to believe that this holds true for the rest of FL. In fact he states that the bottom occured months ago and while he's not predicting a wild upswing he believes that the worst is over.

He said, further, that Florida is in good shape to ride out the housing market and perhaps even better than other locales. 

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Now with permission to reprint. here it is as reported by FAR.

Hank Fishkind: Other economists wrong - housing on slow upswing

ORLANDO, Fla. - July 26, 2007 - Economist Hank Fishkind calls other economists' dire warnings and negative news about the housing market overblown, and says that, outside of Miami's condominium market, the state's housing markets hit bottom months ago and are now on a slow return to normalcy.

Fishkind, speaking Tuesday on his radio talk show, pointed to recent stories released by respected economists. Last Friday, for example, Bloomberg news published a story with an ominous headline - "Miami condo glut pushes Florida's economy to brink of recession." It quoted Moody's/Economy.com's Mark Zandi who predicted Miami condo price drops as much as 30 percent and a state recession perhaps by October.

"There is no doubt that the Miami condominium market is severely overbuilt, and that there will be sharp price drops and massive defaults," says Fishkind. "But, this is no surprise to anyone who has followed this market." But, he adds, "It is also important to note that Florida's housing markets, outside of Miami's condo market, have hit bottom months ago. The closing volume for new and for existing homes has stabilized."

Fishkind doesn't predict a huge upswing in closings, but "they are no longer declining. Therefore, we have already seen the worst for this cycle. There is no evidence of sharp price drops anywhere in the state, and there is no reason to expect any such drops outside of Miami condos. Population growth is holding up well as the state continues to attract large volumes of retirees and working families looking for jobs."

Fishkind says that rising gas prices could impact consumer spending more than expected, but he calls that a nationwide problem, one that "Florida will ride out ... better than most other places."

Source: WMFE Radio News, 90.7 FM/Fishkind & Associates Inc.

© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
 

Short Sales...some useful information

Recently I attended a seminar at the local Board with regard to short sales and foreclosures. The focus was on short sales for the most part driven largely by the number of questions. The presentation and discussions were by a local title company, a real estate attorney, and a CPA who is also a member of the Board.

I broke down the subject covered into three categories: 1) protecting yourself as a REALTOR, 2) protecting your buyer, and 3) working with and protecting sellers.

1) With regard to protecting yourself there are issues of liability to protect against and there is protecting your income (commission). The liability items are nothing new - don't act outside the scope of your licensure by providing advice and information such as legal, tax, and financial issues. These subjects will come up quite a bit in short sale situations. Covered in items 2) and 3) are the use of listing and sale contract addendums that can help with full disclosure. The bottom line is that the mortgage holder is looking to minimize their losses and not become property owners. The most cost effective way to deal with mortgagees that cannot make their payments and where the proceeds from a sale are insufficient to cover the outstanding balance is for the mortgagor to accept something less than what is owed. Rest assured, the mortgagor will be looking everywhere to minimize their losses and the real estate commission is a prime target and it is almost always reduced. Under these conditions a short sale situation exists - i.e. the sale is short of sufficient funds to pay off the note and other expenses. No attempt is made here to discuss how and why so many of these have come about. That's a whole other discussion. It was reported that 968 foreclosures were filed for in Lee County FL in June of 2007!

To the point on protecting your commission...trouble arises if you're the listing agent when a fixed amount, expressed as a percentage of sales price, as commissions paid to the buyer's agent is offered in the MLS when the mortgagor requires a reduced total commission as a condition for their consent to the sale. All contracts for purchase in short sales are contingent on the mortgagor's approval. If you are the listing agent, you will be on the hook to pay the advertised amount to the buyer's agent thereby drastically reducing your income on the deal after a whole lot of work.

2) With regard to working with buyers you should make sure that the buyer's eyes are wide open, disclose everything, prepare the buyer for potential delays, and the possibility that the deal won't close on time or at all due to all the approvals required. Remember, most mortgages are sold in blocks to investors and each block that is sold has a set of stipulations between the seller of the mortgages and the investor group. So depending on the stipulations and the number of short sales that have already been done and the length of time since the mortgage was taken out each one must be evaluated. What a mortgagor did for one note may not apply to the next one.

The real estate attorney offered an addendum to attach to every purchase contract to help protect the buyer (and seller) and to provide an out if some predetermined amount of time has passed without action by the lender in addition to other details. There is a slight difference in the addendum depending which side you are working. The difference provides for the seller to continue to market the property in search of a higher price and provides for the initial buyer to have first right of refusal to match the new, higher price.

3) With regard to working with sellers, in particular before even accepting a listing do your homework. I've read other articles that talk about agents "finding out" that a short sale situation exists after listing the property. Simply, this should not happen. Do your homework first by i) looking at when the property was purchased - 6, 12, 18 months prior can be a red flag, ii) check the mortgage recorded, is it for more than what you think the listing price will be?, iii) ask your title company to provide a draft net closing sheet, iv) check for lis pendens...

Once you know what the story is you can adjust accordingly and begin to line up all the information the mortgagor will require to approve a sale when a contract comes in. In addition to the sales contract addendums mentioned above the real estate attorney also recommended a listing contract addendum. Among other items the addendum requires the seller to cooperate in every way possible to facilitate the sale (in fact it authorizes financial information to be released to you), agree to reduce the price by some amount every X days until sold (good faith to sell, lender's like this), broker will agree to a reasonable reduction in commission, and the amount offered to cooperating brokers will be reduced also proportionately.

Other Information

I didn't talk about it but there are also potential adverse tax consequences of a short sale for the seller that you should understand and advise your clients to consult a proper financial advisor. There is a big difference with regard to credit scores, too, between a short sale and letting it go to foreclosure. The former is clearly preferable with regard to credit scores.

When a mortgagor agrees to a sale and release of mortgage lean the note obligation must still be dealt with in one way or another. It could be forgiven in part or in full or it may become a personal note.

Disclaimer: It's not my intent to provide legal or other specific advice to you and I therefore suggest that you talk to your broker and legal council to determine how it's best it is for you to proceed. This is a complicated subject and learning about it before you dive in is advisable.

Naples, FL Home for Sale- Park Shore; 3bed; 2700 sq ft +/- ranch; Whispering Pine Way

4770 Whispering Pine Way Curb photoNow you can live in Naples, FL on one of Park Shore's most desirable streets and start building your equity. Enjoy being surrounded by new luxury homes that have recently been built on your street. Your options are endless with this 3 bedroom 2 bath home.

Tile roof and exterior paint are only a few years old. Enjoy the beautiful back yard and fruit trees from the huge screened in lanai. The family room has a stone fireplace and wood floors that extend into the kitchen. Walk to Seagate School or Waterside shops. Join the Park Shore beach association for easy beach access.

4770 Whispering Pine featured web site Virtual Tour

  1. Just blocks from:
    The Beach
    Waterside Shops
    The Village on Venetian Bay

Bob Pisa
Prestige Properties of South Florida, Inc
4947 Tamiami Trail N Ste 106
Naples, FL 34103
239.261.4000 ext 32

www.BobPisa.com

Smart buyers are buying and they're spending more money... Part II

Be sure read the previous post for some background.

Not having as much time to analyze and plot month-by-month...I had a quick look at single family home sales in Bonita Springs and Estero. All the trends seem to be the same.

  1. The average selling price in July of 2006 was just over $550,000
  2. The lowest average was in September of 2006 at just over $500,000 and it is all upward for the rest of the 12 month period
  3. In June of 2007 the average selling price was approximately $700,000.
  4. A trend line on the data indicates a 28% increase in selling prices.

As for volume, the 12 month period averages 40 units per month with the trend line over the period beginning with 25 units and ending with 55 units.

Bob Pisa
www.BobPisa.com

 

Smart buyers are buying and they're spending more money...

Let me be clear. I've looked at the data for single family homes sold in Naples, FL month-by-month, for the past twelve months and the dollar amount that homes are selling for, on average, are going up. Here's the summary:

  1. $821,965 was the average selling price for a home in July of 2006.
  2. The lowest average selling price occurred the following month in August and it was $661,669 - big drop, 19.5%!
  3. In July of 2007, however, the average selling price for a home was $1,215,408.
  4. A straight trend line on the data indicates, approximately, a whopping 50%+ increase!

But how many units sold, you ask? July, August, and September were pretty consistent with about 165 units per month; October through February of 2007 represented about 130 per month; and with the exception of a spike in April with 312 units sold, the rest of the 12 month period is running about 180 units per month.

The days-on-market through the period climbed steadily from the 150 mark to over 200 and has settled back to the 180-190 range. However, because of the way DOM is tracked the likely actual DOM I suspect is higher still.

The rest of the story has to do with expectations... The expectation of many who came in as quick turn investors was realized by the few who were able to get in and get out at the right time. Market timing is always risky. Real estate, notwithstanding the aforementioned, is a smart long-term investment.

Bob Pisa
www.BobPisa.com

For those who like graphs and lots of squiggly lines --> Click Here

Southwest Florida I-75 Expansion

I recently attended a meeting to learn about the I-75 expansion project along with the proposed tolls for I-75.  The first thing that all residents of Collier and Lee County should do is go to the Southwest Florida Expressway Authority (SWFEA) web site and register your opinion (click here). The SWFEA is actively soliciting input.

In 2003 the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) approved a plan to widen I-75 to ten lanes in portions of Lee and Collier Counties. The current plans and budget call for one additional lane to be added in each direction. Construction is to begin later this year and be completed in 2010. The FDOT budgeted $470m for the six lane project from Golden Gate Parkway north to SR 80. This was to include interchange improvements at Daniels Parkway and Immokolee. Road. However with the bids opened in February of 2007, the budgeted $470m will only support additional lanes between Golden Gate Parkway and Colonial Boulevard with only the Immokolee Road interchange being improved. Conventional funding for the ten lane project would not be available until the year 2030!

Enter the tolls. With ~85% of all I-75 trips beginning and ending in Collier and Lee Counties it's imperative to improve the capacity as soon as possible. The recommendation is to widen I-75 to ten lanes between Immokolee Road and Alico Road, the most heavily traveled portion, by 2014. The funding for this would be through tolls for inside express lanes. The additional funds would also support a "Road Ranger" service to deal with breakdowns and accidents in an efficient matter further improving service.

How much? Well that will vary at different time during the day depending on volume and demand. The rates that were mentioned are between $.08 and $.28 per mile. A twenty mile round trip to the airport, for example, would cost between $1.60 and $5.60.

There are several different alternatives for tolling but, the good news (as it seems that tolls will be inevitable) is that there will be no toll booths! All tolls will be collected via some type of transponder and high speed readers.

If you are concerned that residents will end up paying for roads used by tourists don't worry. The new style pre-paid transponders will likely be available for purchase at the car rental counters, supermarkets, and drug stores to name a few possible locations.

If nothing else, click over and express your opinion.