According to Hank Fishkind, noted Orlando based economist. His comments seem to be supported by the data I've reviewed here that housing sales have been increasing steadily over the past twelve months in Collier and parts of Lee county that I reviewed.
During his radio talk show Fishkind stated that the Miami condo market is clearly over built and price drops will continue. There is no reason to believe that this holds true for the rest of FL. In fact he states that the bottom occured months ago and while he's not predicting a wild upswing he believes that the worst is over.
He said, further, that Florida is in good shape to ride out the housing market and perhaps even better than other locales.
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Now with permission to reprint. here it is as reported by FAR.
Hank Fishkind: Other economists wrong - housing on slow upswing
ORLANDO, Fla. - July 26, 2007 - Economist Hank Fishkind calls other economists' dire warnings and negative news about the housing market overblown, and says that, outside of Miami's condominium market, the state's housing markets hit bottom months ago and are now on a slow return to normalcy.
Fishkind, speaking Tuesday on his radio talk show, pointed to recent stories released by respected economists. Last Friday, for example, Bloomberg news published a story with an ominous headline - "Miami condo glut pushes Florida's economy to brink of recession." It quoted Moody's/Economy.com's Mark Zandi who predicted Miami condo price drops as much as 30 percent and a state recession perhaps by October.
"There is no doubt that the Miami condominium market is severely overbuilt, and that there will be sharp price drops and massive defaults," says Fishkind. "But, this is no surprise to anyone who has followed this market." But, he adds, "It is also important to note that Florida's housing markets, outside of Miami's condo market, have hit bottom months ago. The closing volume for new and for existing homes has stabilized."
Fishkind doesn't predict a huge upswing in closings, but "they are no longer declining. Therefore, we have already seen the worst for this cycle. There is no evidence of sharp price drops anywhere in the state, and there is no reason to expect any such drops outside of Miami condos. Population growth is holding up well as the state continues to attract large volumes of retirees and working families looking for jobs."
Fishkind says that rising gas prices could impact consumer spending more than expected, but he calls that a nationwide problem, one that "Florida will ride out ... better than most other places."
Source: WMFE Radio News, 90.7 FM/Fishkind & Associates Inc.
© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
