Even more than feel it, there's real evidence. A few BLOG entries back I reported the opinion of noted Florida economist Hank Fishkind where he essentially said that we've hit the bottom months ago. Go read that entry if you missed it.
Now, I just read the NAR (National Association of REALTORS) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) data for June 2007 and the data clearly shows improvement. (I put the data on my web site http://www.bobpisa.com/ and the direct link to the page is here for easy access if you are interested.)
As I look at the seasonally adjusted data I see:
• Since December of 2005 the index has declined each and every month (except for February 2007) about 4 to 5 points per month.
• In June 2007 it reversed with a 5 point increase.
A five point monthly gain is the largest single month increase since March of 2004 when it was 6.1% according to NAR. It's also important to remember that this data is for pending home sales (active contracts) so this is very much a forward looking indicator.
This is good news all around and let us hope it continues, we'll see with next months data.
Coincidently during a training session that I attended today one of the seasoned agents commented that he is seeing more activity and a decided change for the positive during what is traditionally very slow period in our geography - Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero, Florida.
So, we have a noted economist, data from NAR, and anecdotal input for the southwest Florida market all indicating improvement...I can feel it!
Bob Pisa
Prestige Properties
bob@BobPisa.com
239 261-4000 x32
8/8/2007 - addendum - The AP reported data from the Mortgage Bankers Association today that said the weekly mortgage index is up 8.1% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is the first increase after two consecutive weeks of declines. The mortgage index measures the volume of new mortgage applications; overall the cost for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped.
